Recovery Audit Prioritization Forecasting & Early Warning
Description
Forecast risk, aging, workload, backlog or balance behavior for recovery audit prioritization, then alert owners before audit or fiscal deadlines are missed. The MVP would connect ERP transactions, vendor master, travel, payroll, contract pay, public/exclusion lists, investigative data and produce read-only recommendations for DoD OIG, DFAS, Components, DCAA/DCMA where applicable.
AI / analytics pattern
time-series forecasting / classification
Automation level / stage
predictive analytics
Expected benefit
Earlier intervention before deadlines, lower aging/backlog, better resource allocation.
Audit / financial statement impact
Expenses, accounts payable, accounts receivable, compliance reporting
Controls / human review
Human approval required before posting, payment, denial, personnel action, or official audit response; model validation; drift monitoring; exception sampling; full prompt/data/output logging.
Data needed
ERP transactions, vendor master, travel, payroll, contract pay, public/exclusion lists, investigative data; master/reference data; audit logs; policy/control requirements; prior exceptions; relevant document evidence.
Possible metrics
forecast error; prevented deadline misses; backlog reduction; aging reduction
MVP scope
Start with one Component/reporting entity and one subprocess (recovery audit prioritization) for two close/audit cycles; read-only outputs first.
Related material weakness / control objective
Improper payment prevention; fraud risk management